私TV’s political editor, ロバートペストン, wrote a Twitter thread with the headline: 「それらのために二重vaxxedの間でより高い感染症 [高齢者] 40 に 79 than for non-vaxxed.” ITV changed that headline, but Peston was surprised that these figures “occasioned so little debate”. So let’s debate them.
A Public Health England report オン 9 September showed that over the previous four weeks there had been, 例えば, より多い 97,000 cases among people aged between 40 そして 49. The huge majority (より多い 82,000) had been vaccinated. This is expected when vaccine coverage is high and protection not perfect: most car occupants who die in road incidents are wearing seatbelts.
The surprise came from the reported case rate per 100,000 population being higher for fully vaccinated people (1,116) 高齢者 40 に 49 than for unvaccinated (880), which appears to question the effectiveness of the vaccines. But the problem is that we don’t know how many people have not been vaccinated, because we don’t know how many people live in England, thus demonstrating the need for the recent census.
PHE uses National Immunisation Management System (Nims) estimates of 8.1 million adults aged 40 に 49 in England. These numbers depend on GP records and tend to overcount. 国家統計局 (我ら) also produces population estimates, based on the 2011 census, migration and death registrations and estimates 7.1 million adults in that age group, a million fewer than Nims.
まで 5 9月, NHS England 報告 6.4 million people in that age group had received a Covid-19 vaccine dose. So the ONS population estimate leaves about 700,000 unvaccinated people aged 40 に 49, while using Nims means 1.7 100万. This is a massive difference.
ONS figures will not be perfect, but suggest about 2,000 confirmed cases per 100,000 unvaccinated people aged 40 に 49, twice the rate as in the vaccinated group, and roughly what we might expect. 同様に, ONS estimates give lower case rates in fully vaccinated people than unvaccinated in all ages below 80. There may also be other differences between vaccinated and unvaccinated groups, including the propensity to get tested.
It is unfortunate Robert Peston’s tweets have been misinterpreted by those sceptical of vaccines.