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More people are dying at home than in the past

36 Uitsigte0 Opmerkings

From the start of the pandemic to 24 September 2021, deaths at home in England and Wales have been 37% higher than the 2015-2019 average, according to the Office for National Statistics. For every three people who use...

Rules and advice don’t slow the spread of the virus – human behaviour does

38 Uitsigte0 Opmerkings

Recent queues for fuel have shown the consequences of abrupt changes in behaviour. Almost as sudden were the changes around the first lockdown in March 2020, when close meetings between people plummeted by about three...

Wees versigtig met bewerings oor ongevaccineerde gevalle

48 Uitsigte0 Opmerkings

ITV se politieke redakteur, Robert Peston, het 'n Twitter -draad met die opskrif geskryf: 'Infeksies wat hoër is as dubbel, word vir diegene verhoog [bejaardes] 40 aan 79 as vir nie-vaxxed. ” ITV het die opskrif verander, maar Peston was verrassend ...

Meer depressie en angs, maar minder selfmoorde tydens toesluit

37 Uitsigte0 Opmerkings

Mense ly aan stres, angs, isolasie en wanhoop, en dit is belangrik om tendense in hierdie toestande te verstaan. Die gereelde aanlynopname van die Office for National Statistics vra vier hoofvrae..

Numbers don’t always mean what they seem to mean

79 Uitsigte0 Opmerkings

Last Wednesday, the Evening Standard trumpeted “Covid deaths rocket to 207 in deadliest day in nearly 6 months”. In werklikheid, deaths within 24 days of a positive test were slightly down over the previous week. So what did...

Who is now receiving critical care for Covid?

38 Uitsigte0 Opmerkings

In his memoir of having Covid-19, the poet Michael Rosen recalled doctors telling him he had a 50–50 chance of surviving mechanical ventilation. This advice was optimistic: of ventilated over-70s in the first two wave...

Will we reach herd immunity for the new coronavirus?

22 Uitsigte0 Opmerkings

The Office for National Statistics Covid infection survey estimates that, either through vaccination or infection, an extraordinary 94% of adults now have antibodies to Sars-CoV-2. So why are cases increasing and why ...

Daily cases can be falling while the number of people infected still rises

38 Uitsigte0 Opmerkings

At present, confirmed cases in the UK are declining; by specimen date in England, they fell by 29% in the week up to 24 Julie. In contrast, the Office for National Statistics (VSA) estimates that over the same period t...

What will happen in the third wave?

152 Uitsigte0 Opmerkings

Mathematical models simulated vast numbers of possible futures for after the UK government lifts Covid restrictions in England from 19 Julie. Many sources of uncertainty mean we don’t know which one, if any, of these p...

Why most people who now die with Covid have been vaccinated

49 Uitsigte0 Opmerkings

A MailOnline headline on 13 June read: “Study shows 29% van die 42 people who have died after catching the new strain had BOTH vaccinations.” In Public Health England’s technical briefing on 25 Junie, that figure had ri...

Have more than 100% of older people been vaccinated?

45 Uitsigte0 Opmerkings

Across the world, more than 2bn doses of Covid-19 vaccines have gone into arms, and on 2 Junie, the BBC headline “75% of UK adults have had [hul] first vaccine jab” was based on an Office for National Statistics esti...

Why is the new Covid variant spreading?

81 Uitsigte0 Opmerkings

The UK’s fine performance in sequencing Sars-CoV-2 genomes allows Public Health England to publish detailed analyses on the progress of variants and the latest report represents the changing of the guard. The B.1.1.7 ...

Covid, false positives and conditional probabilities

132 Uitsigte0 Opmerkings

Bunhill Fields burial ground contains the relics of John Bunyan, William Blake and Daniel Defoe. Of import to statisticians is the tomb of the Rev Thomas Bayes, Presbyterian clergyman from Tunbridge Wells, who died 2...

Which countries have fared worst in the pandemic?

70 Uitsigte0 Opmerkings

Last April, one of us (DS) wrote an article saying it was too soon to compare how lethal the pandemic had been in different countries. Nearly a year later, has the time come? Ongelukkig, countries have different wa...

How big are the blood-clot risks of the AZ jab?

67 Uitsigte0 Opmerkings

Last Wednesday, the European Medicines Agency stated there was a plausible link between the Oxford/AstraZeneca (Vaxzevria) vaccine and rare types of blood clotting, which the MHRA estimates may happen in one in 100,00...

How is it possible that the number of deaths is now so low?

59 Uitsigte0 Opmerkings

In the week ending 19 Maart, 10,311 deaths were registered in England and Wales. Every one of these events is a cause of sadness and mourning. Maar, from a statistical perspective, this is a remarkably low total, the l...

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